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Raul Caruso, educated in Naples, Leuven and Milan, is currently senior researcher at the Institute of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Italy) where he is also serving as adjunct professor of international economics. He is also visiting professor at Warsaw University (Poland). He has also been visiting professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (USA), Hiroshima University (Japan), Kazakh Humanitarian Law University (Kazakhstan) and Novosibirsk State University (Russian Federation). His main research interests are peace economics, international political economy, economics of crime and sport economics. He has published on contest theory, sport economics, economic interpretation of terrorism, economic causes of wars and international economic sanctions. He is the executive coordinator of Network of European Peace Scientists (NEPS). He is also editor in chief of Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.

The study of war and peace is nowadays becoming a complex topic drawing from different disciplines and applying different methodologies. This book collects 10 studies on conflict and its pernicious consequences. The appropriate scientific field for this set of studies is the peace economics as defined in Isard (1994), Arrow (1995) and Caruso (2010). In particular, Peace Economics is a sub-field of Peace Science and it is generally concerned with (1) the economic determinants of actual and potential conflicts; (2) the impact of conflict on welfare and on the economic behaviour of societies; (3) the use of economic measures to cope with and control conflicts whether economic or not. Central to this field are analyses of conflicts amongst nations, regions and other communities of the world; measures to control (deescalate) arms races and achieve reduction in military expenditures; programmes and policies to utilize resources thus released for more constructive purposes. Put briefly, the main object of peace economics is the study of conflict and conflict resolution in different forms. In particular, the contents of this book are mainly on the positive ‘side’ of Peace Economics, which emphasizes the study of conflict and its consequences. In particular, in the recent years, a growing economic literature has uncovered both the economic determinants and consequences of actual intra-state conflicts. This book is intended to be a contribution to this literature. It gathers both theoretical and empirical contributions.

This chapter presents first a theoretical model of conflict between two agents characterised by a two-sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice-cream’. Eventually, tradable goods made of both butter and ice-cream produced by conflicting parties are sold to the rest of the world. Therefore, the opportunity cost of conflict depends also on the relative profitability of contested and uncontested production. In particular, productivity of uncontested production and profitability of contested sectors are countervailing forces. The empirical section focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995–2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that prices of manufactures (interpreted as the uncontested ice-cream) are negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. Eventually, international price of manufactures is also associated with a higher GDP per capita growth rate. The concluding remark seems to be that an increase in world prices of manufactures would make civil wars less likely.

Terrorist events are unforeseen and have the potential to shake and rattle markets and investors. The purpose of this study is to examine whether major terrorist incidents have affected the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in four European countries.

An index is constructed that weights the severity of each event and then used to evaluate through the use of vector autoregressive and impulse response analysis estimation techniques whether or not and to what extent the ESI has been affected.

Effects were more pronounced and evident in the case of France and Germany while the ESI in Spain and Great Britain did not appear to be particularly affected by terrorist incidents.

The effects of terrorism on economic sentiment in other countries will provide additional evidence that will allow more robust and conclusive statistical inferences.

The impact of terrorist activity on the ESI for the four European countries studied here has not been examined before using VAR and impulse response analysis.